Economic Snapshot
The New Eurozone Political Geometry: What Economic and Market Implications?
The New Eurozone Political Geometry: What Economic and Market Implications? The struggle to form a government in the aftermath of inconclusive Greek elections last weekend has turned many market-watchers into micro-political analysts, counting seats and attempting to decipher the platforms of new and sometimes marginal Greek political parties for coalition-forming potential. At the same time, [...]
Preparing for Greek eurozone exit
Preparing for Greek eurozone exit Recent political changes in Greece mean that investors are increasingly viewing a Greek exit from the eurozone as most likely. Current political dynamics suggest that a new Greek government will have to rely on participation from left-wing parties, which are calling for a renegotiation of Greece’s agreement with the Troika. [...]
Thailand Economics: Moving closer to the pre-flood level
Thailand Economics: Moving closer to the pre-flood level ● Exports and imports rebounded strongly in February, with custom exports rising 0.9% YoY, higher than the market expectations of -5.0%. Imports also surprised on the upside, increasing 8.3% YoY after declining 4.2% in January. ● While the recovery in exports is faster than we had anticipated, [...]
Chile’s new GDP metrics: slower 2011, faster 2012
Chile’s new GDP metrics: slower 2011, faster 2012 New metric reduced 2011 real GDP less than expected January’s revised activity was up 9.8% 3m/3m saar Real GDP forecast for 2012 raised to 4.8% from 4.5% Chile’s 4Q11 real GDP was 4.5%oya under the revised methodology. The shift in the base year to [...]
Australia’s recent growth mediocre, not “miraculous”
Australia’s recent growth mediocre, not “miraculous” Australia dodged recession during the financial crisis, when other developed economies did not Domestic growth since then, though, has disappointed, trailing Germany, Canada, and the US GDP growth should accelerate this year and next as the mining boom offsets structural adjustment elsewhere In the meantime, [...]
China: determinants of CNY exchange rate
China: determinants of CNY exchange rate • There is no clear evidence of a basket-based exchange rate regime for CNY • USD remains the key currency for CNY spot rates; political events also matter • CNY is now closer to equilibrium exchange rate, but there is still room for appreciation in next two years The [...]
UK: inflation overshoot turns from acute to chronic
UK: inflation overshoot turns from acute to chronic • Stickiness in core and the prospect of new energy price increases point to another year of above-target inflation • Expectations remain contained so far, but higher inflation will dampen the lift in consumption this year Inflation has fallen sharply from its peak of over 5%oya last [...]
India’s Budget Statement Taxing and spending
India’s Budget Statement Taxing and spending ● The Indian government’s budget was a fairly traditional and predictable affair—with sizeable spending increases to be financed mainly from higher taxes. The excise and services tax will be hiked from 10% to 12%, with the services tax net being extended as well. ● As expected, Finance Minister Pranab [...]
The era of positive PMI surprises seems over (not that it lasted long)
The era of positive PMI surprises seems over (not that it lasted long) * Second month of negative surprises French and German overall indexes disappointed both the market and us (we had lower forecasts than the market) in both services and manufacturing. EU manufacturing PMI was in line with our forecast but well below market [...]
Europe Recession 120317
Europe Recession 120317 Download Link 7economy.com/?s2member_file_download=UBS Europe Recession 120317.swf
