America
Chile’s new GDP metrics: slower 2011, faster 2012
Chile’s new GDP metrics: slower 2011, faster 2012 New metric reduced 2011 real GDP less than expected January’s revised activity was up 9.8% 3m/3m saar Real GDP forecast for 2012 raised to 4.8% from 4.5% Chile’s 4Q11 real GDP was 4.5%oya under the revised methodology. The shift in the base year to [...]
Latin America Exports made for China
Latin America Exports made for China Review: In Brazil, the Copom decided to cut the benchmark Selic rate by 75bp, to 9.75%. We now expect the central bank to cut 75bp in April and 50bp in May. Hot topic: We think the major LatAm economies, with the exception of Mexico, could be significantly affected by [...]
Canada Fade BoC hawkishness
Canada Fade BoC hawkishness Review: The BoC left rates at 1.0% and upgraded the outlook. 4Q GDP report contained upward revisions. Homebuilding activity stayed elevated. Hot topic: BoC statement was more hawkish than last January, as we expected. Early pricing of BoC hikes should be faded as downside risks to growth will reemerge, in our [...]
LATIN AMERICA : Brazil changes the policy mix
LATIN AMERICA : Brazil changes the policy mix Brazil is shifting to a strong loose monetary/loose fiscal policy stance in reaction to weaker activity indicators. This new policy mix should soothe concerns about growth, but it will most likely happen at the cost of higher inflation. Other policymakers in the region should [...]
Panama: Bolstered by domestic demand
Panama: Bolstered by domestic demand ‧ Economic growth will likely slow in 2012, but not to the same degree as in 2009. Panama’s small open economy is exposed to the European debt crisis and a weaker global growth environment via the Panama Canal and port-related activities, tourism, demand for Colon Free Zone re-exports and its [...]
Mexico: So far, not so bad
Mexico: So far, not so bad • We have been positively surprised about the resilience of the Mexican economy in 2011. However, weaker growth in industrial output in the US in 2012 should translate into somewhat slower growth in Mexico, but nothing too dramatic. We still think that the central bank will try to offset [...]
Colombia: Growth may hit speed bump
Colombia: Growth may hit speed bump ‧ We expect real GDP growth to slow to 4% in 2012 from an estimated 5% in 2011. Domestic demand growth was strong through early Q4, but leading indicators already point to a moderation in activity in the second part of the current quarter. Both consumer sentiment and the [...]
Chile: Not a worrisome slowdown until now
Chile: Not a worrisome slowdown until now ‧ Some signs of an economic slowdown have emerged in Chile recently. This has not yet been reflected, however, in the labor market or in commercial banks’ ability and willingness to lend. Instead, weakness appears to be confined for now to the industrial sector. In this context, we [...]
Brazil: Continuation of the easing cycle in 2012 due to lower GDP growth and declining inflation
Brazil: Continuation of the easing cycle in 2012 due to lower GDP growth and declining inflation • We expect real GDP growth to end up at 2.8% for 2011 as a whole and to fall to 2.5% in 2012, well below the annual average of 4.5% that was recorded between 2004 and 2010, as we [...]
Argentina: Fine-tuning the model?
Argentina: Fine-tuning the model? • President Cristina Kirchner has, thus far, sent signals of policy moderation, which she has referred to as a “fine-tuning of the model.” During the past eight years – first, with Nestor Kirchner at the helm of the country and then Cristina Kirchner – there has been a significant improvement in [...]
