Asia
Thailand Economics: Moving closer to the pre-flood level
Thailand Economics: Moving closer to the pre-flood level ● Exports and imports rebounded strongly in February, with custom exports rising 0.9% YoY, higher than the market expectations of -5.0%. Imports also surprised on the upside, increasing 8.3% YoY after declining 4.2% in January. ● While the recovery in exports is faster than we had anticipated, [...]
Australia’s recent growth mediocre, not “miraculous”
Australia’s recent growth mediocre, not “miraculous” Australia dodged recession during the financial crisis, when other developed economies did not Domestic growth since then, though, has disappointed, trailing Germany, Canada, and the US GDP growth should accelerate this year and next as the mining boom offsets structural adjustment elsewhere In the meantime, [...]
China: determinants of CNY exchange rate
China: determinants of CNY exchange rate • There is no clear evidence of a basket-based exchange rate regime for CNY • USD remains the key currency for CNY spot rates; political events also matter • CNY is now closer to equilibrium exchange rate, but there is still room for appreciation in next two years The [...]
India’s Budget Statement Taxing and spending
India’s Budget Statement Taxing and spending ● The Indian government’s budget was a fairly traditional and predictable affair—with sizeable spending increases to be financed mainly from higher taxes. The excise and services tax will be hiked from 10% to 12%, with the services tax net being extended as well. ● As expected, Finance Minister Pranab [...]
China: Takeaways from the National People’s Congress
China: Takeaways from the National People’s Congress • China’s growth target for 2012 was lowered to 7.5%, as we expected, but policy easing is still likely. • The inflation target was set at 4%, which leaves room for energy price reforms and policy easing in H1. • We expect progress on other important structural reforms [...]
India Special Report Fiscal cheer
India Special Report Fiscal cheer The union budget on 16 March will be the litmus test on the government’s commitment to judicious economic policies. While a poor showing in recent state elections has reduced the government’s ability to pass politically sensitive reforms, this has only increased the onus on it to reduce the fiscal [...]
China posts a record large trade deficit
China posts a record large trade deficit • Export growth picked up to 18.4% y-o-y in February from -0.5% in January, but was much weaker than expected. • Import growth rebounded by more than expected to 39.6% y-o-y from -15.3%, producing a record high trade deficit of USD31.5bn in February. • After adjusting for the [...]
Australia Key data weaker than expected
Australia Key data weaker than expected Review: 4Q 2011 GDP and February employment were both weaker than expected, while the RBA left monetary policy on hold for another month. Hot topic: Foreign purchases of Australian Government bonds were more than sufficient to finance Australia’s current account deficit during 2011. Preview: A light week with only [...]
Japan Testing times for the BoJ
Japan Testing times for the BoJ Review: Japan’s January current account balance hit its biggest deficit (¥437.3bn) since 1985. Revised estimates indicate 4Q 2011 GDP shrank 0.2% qoq, marking a major upgrade on the first preliminary figure. Hot topic: Even if the imminent MPC meeting leaves its policy unchanged, the BoJ is likely to take [...]
MALAYSIA Countdown to elections and stronger MYR
MALAYSIA Countdown to elections and stronger MYR Pay increases for civil servants appear to be another sign that elections could be around the corner, possibly as early as Q2. We believe elections would be positive for MYR, as they are likely to be accompanied by more divestments and FDI project announcements. We believe that the [...]
