Europe
The New Eurozone Political Geometry: What Economic and Market Implications?
The New Eurozone Political Geometry: What Economic and Market Implications? The struggle to form a government in the aftermath of inconclusive Greek elections last weekend has turned many market-watchers into micro-political analysts, counting seats and attempting to decipher the platforms of new and sometimes marginal Greek political parties for coalition-forming potential. At the same time, [...]
Preparing for Greek eurozone exit
Preparing for Greek eurozone exit Recent political changes in Greece mean that investors are increasingly viewing a Greek exit from the eurozone as most likely. Current political dynamics suggest that a new Greek government will have to rely on participation from left-wing parties, which are calling for a renegotiation of Greece’s agreement with the Troika. [...]
UK: inflation overshoot turns from acute to chronic
UK: inflation overshoot turns from acute to chronic • Stickiness in core and the prospect of new energy price increases point to another year of above-target inflation • Expectations remain contained so far, but higher inflation will dampen the lift in consumption this year Inflation has fallen sharply from its peak of over 5%oya last [...]
The era of positive PMI surprises seems over (not that it lasted long)
The era of positive PMI surprises seems over (not that it lasted long) * Second month of negative surprises French and German overall indexes disappointed both the market and us (we had lower forecasts than the market) in both services and manufacturing. EU manufacturing PMI was in line with our forecast but well below market [...]
Europe Recession 120317
Europe Recession 120317 Download Link 7economy.com/?s2member_file_download=UBS Europe Recession 120317.swf
PAN-EUROPEAN BANKS PSI passes but ROTE limits upside
PAN-EUROPEAN BANKS PSI passes but ROTE limits upside With 85.8% of bondholders having accepted the PSI agreement by the deadline (95.7% after CACs), and with European banks well provisioned for the haircuts, a EUR1trn+ disaster looks to have been avoided, supporting the risk-on liquidity rally. But additional catalysts are starting to thin, and after a [...]
Greek PSI participation a success – CDS to trigger
Greek PSI participation a success – CDS to trigger Greece has just announced the participation rate at the PSI debt exchange. Overall participation reached 83.5%. Participation in Greek law bonds was 85.8%, while participation in international law bonds and bonds issued by state enterprises and guaranteed by the Republic was 69%. Greece also announced its [...]
United Kingdom Fading the recession risks
United Kingdom Fading the recession risks Review: The MPC left interest rates and QE on hold, as expected. Hot Topic: The risks of the UK falling back into a material double-dip recession have eased notably of late, in our view. That could offer material support to the UK banking sector. Preview: We expect the labour [...]
Euro area It’s a hawk, it’s a dove, it’s Draghi!
Euro area It’s a hawk, it’s a dove, it’s Draghi! Review: Euro area GDP growth was unrevised at -0.3% in the fourth quarter – the weakest level since the first quarter of 2009. Across countries, we continue to look for sizeable North-South divides through the year. Hot topic: Yesterday, the ECB announced it is in [...]
Back to the Greek future
Back to the Greek future Review: US nonfarm payrolls rose a solid 227,000 in February. The ECB wants to wait and evaluate the LTROs. Hot topic: The second Greek adjustment program is about to be given the green light. But we remain concerned about political risks in Greece. Preview: We do not expect any changes [...]
