US Economic Analysis
USA economy: Inflation remains elevated
USA economy: Inflation remains elevated Inflation remains elevated in the US, but with much of it driven by rising commodity prices, concerns have been largely muted. Energy price increases contributed significantly to inflation remaining at 2.9% in February, the same as in January—although this is below the level recorded throughout most of 2011. The rise [...]
Focus: housing signals mixed
Focus: housing signals mixed The recent housing data indicators have been mixed. While some indicators show signs of activity picking up in the housing market, others show persistent weakness. There is some goods news in that most indicators do not appear to be getting any worse at this point. The NAHB survey has [...]
US: what’s Okun been smokin’?
US: what’s Okun been smokin’? • The recent decline in the unemployment rate has been probably the biggest puzzle in the economy • Productivity, which used to be procyclical, has now turned countercyclical • This has big implications for the unemployment rate, as well as other aspects of the macroeconomy Not too long ago Okun’s [...]
USA economy: A pixelated portrait of labour
USA economy: A pixelated portrait of labour LinkedIn offers a new way to look at employment OFFICIAL statistics can tell you how many workers were jobless last month, how many had college degrees and how many worked in construction. But they cannot tell you how many know Hadoop, a software for managing data that is [...]
US: another springtime head fake?
US: another springtime head fake? • The echo effects of the Great Recession have led seasonally adjusted data to be more favorable in winter • However, this seasonal bias is probably not the primary reason the past two summers have disappointed • The bias fades over time and is likely quite small this year US [...]
US Pent-up demand and anger
US Pent-up demand and anger Rising gasoline prices may be especially galling to consumers who seem anxious to replace the “clunkers” they have held on to for too long. Few products in human history figure so prominently in the economy – or in society itself – quite like the automobile and Americans’ love for their [...]
United States Booming or treading water?
United States Booming or treading water? Review: The February employment report was solid with a 227K gain in payrolls, but a wider trade deficit pushed our Q1 GDP tracking to 1.6%. Hot topic: Normally the unemployment rate is the best indicator of the health of the labor market. Today, it is misleading. Preview: Retail sales [...]
US : Demand expanding spare capacity limited
US : Demand expanding spare capacity limited Despite some soft activity data in January, the economic recovery continues to build momentum, in our view. A pickup in consumer demand for discretionary items suggests that spending has not been constrained significantly by household deleveraging. Upward revisions to unit labor cost growth support our [...]
US: labor force participation goes on the D.L.
US: labor force participation goes on the D.L. • Since the recession began, the share of the population receiving federal disability benefits has accelerated • This has exerted downward pressure on labor force participation rates of prime-age (25-64) adults • That, in turn, has facilitated a lower measured unemployment rate As of January over 8.5 [...]
Soft patch for US capital spending may already be over
Soft patch for US capital spending may already be over • Capex slowed sharply in 4Q11, as spending on equipment moderated and spending on structures fell • Forecast looks for a rebound in capex starting now • The most recent reports on factory shipments, construction spending, and jobs support the forecast Business fixed investment slowed [...]
